Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin’s long-term uptrend remains strong, but an analyst warns that the four-year cycle may limit another leg up.
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Analysts believe Bitcoin could move higher past the current all-time highs, with targets between $130,000-$168,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) might not have time to mount another parabolic rally this cycle, based on its four-year cycle model, a crypto analyst warns.
“Despite the short-term volatility, the long-term outlook is still very strong, structured uptrend, a Channel Up pattern that is now technically aiming for its next higher high,” said popular analyst TradingShot in a Tuesday post on TradingView, basing his analysis on Bitcoin’s technical indicators.
Will Bitcoin see another parabolic rally?
TradingShot explained that another major rally could be limited by Bitcoin’s position within a well-defined long-term uptrend that has yet to produce the kind of rallies seen in the past cycles.
Since bottoming in November 2022, he noted that Bitcoin has traded within an upward channel that closely aligns with a Fibonacci channel that has tracked BTC price movements since 2013.
Related: Bitcoin gets ‘highly favorable’ cues as DXY sets 21-year weakness record
“As you can see during the previous two cycles, every time BTC got above that Buy Zone, it started a parabolic rally,” the analyst wrote.
For instance, in the 2017 and 2021 cycles, such breakouts triggered rapid, exponential moves into the upper Fibonacci bands, delivering significant gains.
TradingShot says that this cycle has not produced a similar breakout, noting:
“So far, we haven’t had such a rally during the current Cycle, and with time running out (assuming the 4-year Cycle model continues to hold), do you think we will get one this time around?”
Popular crypto analyst Rekt Capital also pointed out that Bitcoin may only have a few months of price expansion left in the cycle, especially if it follows the same historical pattern from 2020.
Rekt explained that the price will likely peak in October, which is 550 days after the Bitcoin halving in April 2024. He added:
“That’s already two to three months potentially that we have left in this bull market.”
As Cointelegraph reported, the Bitcoin monthly outflow/inflow ratio suggests that the $100,000 psychological level could be the new bottom range before BTC undergoes another parabolic leg in the second half of 2025.
Bitcoin is trading at $109,760, just 2% below its $111,970 all-time high at the time of writing, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
Bitcoin traders agree BTC price upside not over
Bitcoin keeps testing resistance at $110,000 but has failed to break above it thus far, casting doubts about its ability to continue its uptrend. Despite this, several traders believe BTC still has room for further expansion in 2025.
“Bitcoin has turned the top of the former bull flag into a support!” TradingShot said in another BTC price analysis.
This is a “strong bullish signal along with the price holding above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA),” currently at $106,750, the analyst explained, adding:
“Technically, the break-out from this bull flag targets the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which currently sits at $168,500.”
“Bitcoin broke the bullish flag, retested it, and now pushes higher,” fellow analyst Jelle observed a similar technical breakout, adding:
“Clear $110,000 and $130,000 is the next target.”
Bitcoin price is “still well above the 50-week MA, and it’s also holding strong above the previous all-time high,” said popular crypto analyst Mags, adding:
“It looks like we’re just consolidating before the next leg up.”
Besides traders, multiple onchain metrics and indicators show that Bitcoin is not exhibiting patterns associated with previous tops.
These include Bollinger Bands, high BTC supply in long-term holder hands, diminishing BTC supply on exchanges, MVRV ratio, and persistent institutional demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.